How do you calculate the seasonality?
Seasonality is the expected behaviour of a financial symbol in a year. It is calculated by taking the average performances of the single trading days and then cumulating them from the first trading day of the year, the '1.january', to the last one, the '23.december'.
To align on chart the seasonality and the price we made a little date adjustement. The date (X scale) has been edited from the trading days (1 to 23) to the Days of Month (1 to 31) and symbol prices could be shifted of 1 day back or forth in the x scale, but that is fairly irrilevant for seasonal indications.
How do you choose the period of the blue seasonality line I see as default?
It's the seasonality line calculated using all the years of history of the selected financial symbol, excluding the current year.
The red line I see as default is the current year performance?
Yes it is.
How can I edit or add lines/histograms to the charts?
It’s possible to change the period or add lines and histograms to the charts (excluding the last one) from the setup panel "Edit Charts" that is at the top right of the first chart.
Here is a comprehensive list of charts and their meaning.
Classic Seasonality Video
Shows the average yearly performance of the symbol in the selected years.
Detrended Seasonality Video
Shows the detrended average yearly performance of the symbol in the selected years.
Percentage of Positive Month Video
It's the frequency of the times when the symbol closed above the opening price of the month in the selected years.
Monthly Average Performance Video
It's the expected performance of the symbol on each month in the selected years.
Monthly Average Volatility Video
It's the average percentual distance between the lowest low and the highest high of the market on each month in the selected years.
Equity Line Backtest Video
Shows the historical result of investing $10,000 long in the current month in composite capitalization.
How can I create the seasonality of Gold priced in Euro through a ratio? Video
To create the seasonality of Gold priced in Euro do the ratio between Gold / EurUsd.
Are stocks dividend and spits backadjusted?
Yes they are.
I'm subscribed and I would like to see the seasonality of a title that is not in the ForecastCycles database, what can I do?
Write to us what title you would like to see on ForecastCycles and if possible we will add it.
Why do top-ranked titles have an higher score?
Titles with an higher score are the best opportunities because they have the the best combination of these 4 factors: greater number of years in history, higher percentage of success, lower average volatility and higher monthly average performance.
Why do the signals are updated daily?
The score is updated daily taking into account the title performance. If the title has already risen so much in the current month, it is less likely that it will grow far, beyond its average, so its score will be lowered.
How do suggested stop loss and take profit are calculated?
The suggested stop loss and the take profit of a title's strategy are calculated taking into account the residual performance expected in the month and for the stop also the expected maximum drawdown of a winning trade.
If we are at the end of the month, are the signals still valid?
Yes they are they are weaker than the beginning of the month. In the last days it could be better to start monitoring the signals of the next month.